Monumental task for Leinster in Marseille

A win is a win in knockout rugby and thats exactly how Leinster will be looking at their triumph in the Aviva over Bath. An unconvincing 18-15 win was enough to see Leinster through to the Semi-final of this years Champions Cup where they will face the huge task of facing Toulon in Marseille.

The win was not as Leinster would have hoped, at home to Bath Matt O’Connor’s side would expect to win comfortably but that was not the case, instead it was a nervy finish to the game with Ian Madigan guiding the Irish side to victory with his boot.

Its not to say Bath are a weak team, their young squad contains some of England’s stars of the future, George Ford, Anthony Watson and Jonathan Joseph were all in the starting 15 on Saturday. However they are not anywhere near the standard of Toulon who are up next for Matt O’Connor’s side.

Toulon will go into the semi-final as massive favourites as they look to get to another European final and win it for the third consecutive time, a feat never before accomplished by any side.They were similarly disappointing by their own standards defeating another Aviva Premiership side, Wasps, 32-18. Toulon failed to brush the English side aside as expected in a error littered game of rugby.

With home advantage and the psychological edge that comes with overcoming Leinster in the quarter-final’s last year they will fully be expecting to make it to another final. Leinster will need to play to their absolute maximum to stand a chance against the French side and will rely heavily on the likes of Madigan and Gopperth to set the tone.

Of course Toulon are not unbeatable, without the steadying force and calming presence that was Jonny Wilkinson they have lost a real leader, the quality of players within their ranks is without question but the loss of such an influential player is bound to make an impact. The injury to Matt Giteau was another big bonus for the opposition but after making his return against Wasps he should be fully fit for the visit of Leinster.

It does look like its all down to Leinster to stop what is set up for another all French final, Toulon’s domestic rivals Clermont were simply sensational in their quarter final clash with Aviva Premiership leaders Northampton trashing them 37-5. There semi-final game is against Saracens who will have their work cut out to stop Clermont’s devastating back-line.

Northern Hemisphere’s best: Jonny Sexton

He has long been compared to the maestro that came before him Ronan O’Gara but Jonathan Sexton is beginning to rubber stamp his credentials as the most integral part of Joe Schmidt’s side and the best player in the Northern Hemisphere. Sexton was shortlisted for World player of the year, a decision that many in the rugby world questioned at the time and he may not have won it but was he to win it this year few people would have any complaints.

Sexton arrived on the International scene with the almost impossible job of replacing Ireland’s beloved ROG, the best tactical kicker and place kicker we may have ever seen but Sexton has stepped into the role and made it his own. The Racing Metro man has gone from making fans sweat as he stepped up to the kicking tee to everyone almost turning away after the award of a penalty anywhere in the opposition half in expectance that the number 10 will slot it over.

Not only is Sexton a well assured place kicker these days but his all round play is nothing short of brilliant. His performance against England in defence was impeccable, he appeared to be everywhere and his tackle on George Ford in which he floored his opposite number was a perfect example of the effect Sexton was having on the game. Not only was his defensive game on point but his playmaking on the day was fantastic, everytime he got the ball near either wing you felt he was about to make something happen.

Jonny Sexton is now well established as the best number 10 in the northern hemisphere and may well have a claim for best in the world should he keep his form going into the World Cup. When looking at his performances against France and England it must also be noted that he had the weight of almost an entire country on his back and he was not fazed in the slightest, he accepted the responsibility and played like a leader out on the field, the sign of a great player.

Its not just Irish people who are raving about the kicker, English media were so impressed by the performance of Sexton against their own side that the Telegraph suggested that Sexton could lead the Irish to World Cup glory. New Zealand media who are also paying a lot of attention to the Six Nations have been very impressed with the Irish side as a whole and in particular Sexton but of course were not getting too carried away with the thoughts of the Irish side being any real threat to their World Cup crown.

The 29-year-old looks almost destined to be named player of the tournament in this years Six Nations should he and Ireland continue their form in the remaining two games. Joe Schmidt has instilled a great confidence in Sexton and the whole Irish team that has led to them playing above the level anyone expected. With the World Cup just around the corner Sexton is peaking at just the right time and who knows by the end of the year this article could read; Sexton, the best in the world.

Is a draw out of the question?

Sunday sees the only two unbeaten sides left in this years Six Nations go head to head in the Aviva Stadium in what is expected to be a championship decider. Former players and pundits have labelled the game too close to call, raising the question if this huge game has draw written all over it.

Ireland go into the game on a 9 match winning streak including victories over South Africa, Australia and only two weeks ago France, although they have not been massively impressive in some of those games they have been well organised and stuck to their game plan with great efficiency. Joe Schmidt has instilled a great sense of confidence amongst the players that can only be achieved by winning, the fans have similarly gained confidence from the great form of their side, its hard to remember a French game where the people of Ireland were as confident they would come out on top as was the case in Ireland’s last outing. That confidence is evident once again going into the English game with nothing less than a victory expected.

Stuart Lancaster and his England side are not short of confidence themselves, they are unbeaten in 4 and after overcoming Wales in the Millenium stadium they will be confident they can go anywhere and win. Lancaster’s side have been full of flair in the opening two games, they blew Italy away by 47-17 while their 21-16 win at the Millenium was not only a huge statement of intent but also a showcase of the threat the English side have amongst their backs.

A huge amount of hype has been made about young centre Jonathan Joseph who has scored 3 tries in 2 games so far and is expected to be the biggest threat to Ireland when he graces the Aviva pitch. Joe Schmidt’s sides are known for their great organisation but they will have their work cut out against the tricky 23 year old. Joseph wont be the only threat with Burrell, Nowell and Watson alongside him offering a lot going forward.

Tommy Bowe and Simon Zebo will be looking to offer the threat for Ireland this Sunday down their respective wings and will be looking to make amends for not getting any tries on the scoreboard against France. Bowe has shown his prowess in the air fielding many of Sexton’s kick off’s and gaining valuable ground for his side, Zebo has been relatively quiet thus far in the tournament but his potential for moments of brilliance will have Lancaster planning to keep him under control.

Last seasons encounter saw Ireland score a try through Rob Kearney off the back of a set piece, something that Ireland have become renowned for and where they will look to plan most of their attacks this weekend.

The breakdown is often where games are won and lost in modern rugby and it could well be the case when the two sides face off this weekend, Ireland under Schmidt have been brilliant in their rucking and discipline at the breakdown but last week against France they were turned over too many times and they were uncharacteristically ill-disciplined, if they repeat the performance England will have a field day and George Ford will kick penalties for fun if they continue to give him the chance.

The biggest clash of the match will take place between Jonny Sexton and his fellow number 10 George Ford emphasising the importance of number 10’s in the game these days. Sexton is one of the greatest playmakers in the game as he showed last day against France, if he plays to his best it is hard to look past an Ireland win but George Ford will have something to say about that. 21 year old Ford has looked at home so far in the absence of Owen Farrell and will see this big occasion as a chance to show his credentials. Ford will also try to dictate the game to England’s favour through his accurate kicking although his decision making will be vital and any mistake or misjudgement will be punished.

Most games in International rugby at this high level are decided by just one score and with Ireland and England being so well matched you can expect that at the Aviva. It is not out of the realm of possibility that this championship decider could end as a draw, its just too hard to pick a winner.

Are we headed for an all-French Champions Cup Final?

As the pool stages came to an end this weekend, the draws for the quarter and  semi finals of the Champions Cup were held and its looking increasingly likely that London will be hosting an all-French affair this May.

The quarter finals include three French Top14 sides, one Irish side and for the first time ever four English Premiership sides have made it out of the pool stages but unfortunately for all four of them they have been handed away draws.

Semi-Final draw

(Toulon v Wasps) v (Leinster v Bath)

(Clermont v Northampton) v (Racing Metro v Saracens)

The draw already looks set for a repeat of the 2012/13 final where Toulon overcame French rivals Clermont Auvergne 16-15 with both sides on different halves of the draw and both securing a home route to the final. As likely as this seems of course this is no certainty and there is still a lot of rugby to be played before we reach the final.

Toulon are the bookies favourites to retain their title and make it three in a row after following up their 12/13 win against Clermont with a relatively easy win over Saracens last season in the final year of the old structure Heineken Cup.  The French side were the only ones to get through pool 3 ahead of Leicester, Ulster and Scarlets, finishing with 22 points and five wins out of six, just losing one game. Their star studded side contains big names such as Halfpenny, Habana and Steffon Armitage and it will take a massive performance by any team to knock them out especially at home where they will play the quarter final and semi final should they make it.

Wasps are the team that were given the unfortunate task of playing Toulon in the quarters in Toulon and will be cursing their luck because if Goode had converted a last minute drop goal against Leinster on Sunday they would have topped their group and avoided the French giants but it was not to be. It’s hard to see Wasps beating Toulon especially away from home and you would expect the real test for Toulon will be in the semi-final.

The winner of Leinster and Bath will come up against the winner of that first quarter final and based on their pool form Leinster should come through this one. Leinster snuck into the top spot of the pool and with Cian Healy and Sean O’Brien set to be back for their knockout clashes they should be able to see-off Bath, who won their pool with fewer points than any other pool winners.

The probable semi-final would be Toulon hosting Leinster. Leinster’s experience in the competition should hold them in good stead and they seem the most likely side to go to France and knock out the reigning champions.

At the other side of the draw, Clermont Auvergne will welcome Northampton Saints and will be fully confident of coming through that tie. Clermont is arguably the hardest place to visit and despite Northampton scoring the most tries (25) in the pool stages the likes of George North will struggle to break through Clermont’s strong line.

Racing Metro are the third French side to get a home quarter-final as Jonny Sexton’s side welcome Saracens. Racing are the only unbeaten side in this seasons Champions Cup and with a home draw they are strong favourites to progress past Saracens. Their unbeaten status may be a bit misleading after coming through a relatively easy group that included both the Ospreys and Treviso with Northampton offering the only real threat.

Saracens made it to last years final only to be defeated by Toulon and it looks likely their campaign will be ended by a French side again this year. Englishmen Owen Farrell and Chris Ashton will have to be on top of their game if they are to cause an upset but even then it’s hard to look past the French side.

One would expect the semi-final will be a mammoth clash between French giants, Clermont Auvergne and Racing Metro in Clermont. Home advantage would not be as important in this tie with both sides being French but Clermont’s exciting back line of Jonathan Davies, Wesley Fofana, Morgan Parra amongst others should be too strong for their French counterparts.

Money talks in sport and as has been the trend the wealthy French sides look set to dominate once again in the latter stages of this seasons Champions Cup. Unless one of the English sides can cause an upset or Matt O’Connor’s Leinster pull something out of the bag, an all-French final looks almost inevitable.